Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be below 50%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots c — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots c — https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/index.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.