Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.