The market moved

-9.5ppin 24h · now 26¢

Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 15–20%?

Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $336.53

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://sos.ks.gov/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.