The market moved
-26.5ppin 24h · now 9¢
Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $249.42
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 9¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 26.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://sos.ks.gov/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.