The market moved

-17.3ppin 24h · now 18¢

Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 25%?

Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $344.14

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 17.3pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://sos.ks.gov/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.