The market moved

+69.7ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%?

Macro · resolves May 14 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 69.7pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.