The market moved
+0.5ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?
Macro · resolves Aug 12 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 25¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.