The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?
Macro · resolves Nov 12 · vol $1.5K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.