The market moved
+32.4ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 30 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 32.4pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.