Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting — https://www.kmu.gov.ua/storage/app/imported_content/document/110977042/Constitution_eng.doc).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.