The market moved
+25.5ppin 24h · now 54¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $50.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 54¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 25.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.