Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 96¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on russian government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Russian government.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.