Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on the opec monthly oil market report published for each month — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month — https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.