The market moved
-22.5ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
Other · resolves Sep 1 · vol $3.0K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on droughtmonitor.unl.edu — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu — https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.