Will Warsh say "Tax" during July Press Conference?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on statements from warsh — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Statements from Warsh — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.