Will Whitney Tilson finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.2pp shift. Resolution depends on the official certified results of the final rcv round as published by the new york city board of elections — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the official certified results of the final RCV round as published by the New York City Board of Elections.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.