The market moved
-0.3ppin 24h · now 6¢
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?
Macro · resolves Jan 15 · vol $49.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.