Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.8pp shift. Resolution depends on to the ai model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the nof1 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1 — https://nof1.ai/leaderboard).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.