The market moved

-2.0ppin 24h · now

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?

Other · resolves Jul 17 · vol $687.04

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 40.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.