The market moved

+44.0ppin 24h · now 86¢

Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?

Geopolitics · resolves Sep 20 · vol $63.51

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 86¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 44.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.