Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the first round ranked-choice vote share for zohran mamdani in the 2025 democratic primary for mayor of new york city — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the first round ranked-choice vote share for Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.