Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the vote share won by the listed candidate — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the vote share won by the listed candidate.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.