Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 55% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.7pp shift. Resolution depends on to the vote share won by the listed candidate — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the vote share won by the listed candidate.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.