Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.6pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin of victory (mov) for democrat zohran mamdani in the 2025 new york city mayoral general election, scheduled — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City mayoral general election, scheduled.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.