Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin of victory (mov) for democrat zohran mamdani in the 2025 new york city mayoral general election, scheduled — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City mayoral general election, scheduled.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.