Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 11.5

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source on Polymarket — the market description names where settlement comes from.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 15.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.