Orrery Pulse

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

21% current
7D range
17-32%
Net move
+4.0pp
24h volume
$53
7 day implied probability chart
May 1150% decision lineMay 18

Shareable snapshot generated from public Polymarket CLOB history.