Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution is contested.

UMA disputed

Do not treat the current price as final while the optimistic-oracle path is disputed.

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Probability

72¢

24h volume

$278.4K

Source path

US government

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: disputed
  • 02Expiry: Jun 30, 2026
  • 03Read the market rule and the UMA dispute path before repeating the outcome.
  • 04Compare sibling markets for wording differences.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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