Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 4pp over 24h

  Now 67¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 3.5× turnover

  $296.3k traded against $84.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 03
  Active signal

  Divergence observation firing

  Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.5pp vs. 24h -4.0pp.

• 04
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.

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