Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Resolves in 14h.

Probability

86¢

24h volume

$4.3K

Source path

to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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