Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
Probability
85¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$26.24
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $2.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1191.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 85¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 2d ago (to 85¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 85¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 85¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 85¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 85¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 85¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 85¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's JuneLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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