The market moved
+4.9ppin 24h · now 8¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves May 31 · vol $438.65
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 8¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.9pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.