Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$133.33
Liquidity
$2.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 529.9h
Price movement
+0.7pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 4d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
- 4d ago · -3.5pp → 7¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
iranReason
Question text contains "iran" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 22:05:00 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -6.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$133.33 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
