Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.