Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $19.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify. A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.