The market moved

+5.5ppin 24h · now 86¢

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Macro · resolves Dec 31 · vol $461.48

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 86¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/).
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.