Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Probability
63¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$185.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+29.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 63¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5978h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5978.5h
- 21:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5978h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Biggest hourly move: +25.0pp at 1d ago (to 63¢).
Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +24.0pp → 62¢
- 02:00 · +24.0pp → 62¢
- 22:00 · +23.5pp → 61¢
- 1d ago · +25.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +25.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +24.5pp → 62¢
- 1d ago · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 3d ago · +23.0pp → 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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