Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 16.3pp shift. Resolution depends on information that is public as of may 15, 2026 et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: information that is public as of May 15, 2026 ET — https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.