Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.71
Liquidity
$895.29
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 468.6h
- 11:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 469h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any fund with holdings of at least $250,000,000 US in $IBIT (https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf), that forms a holdings allocation of 25% or greater in that asset, in either Q3 2025 or Q4 2025 shows holdings of $10,000,000 or less US in Q1 2026 on their 13F filing (https://www.sec.gov/submit-filings/forms-index) when that information is made public. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on information that is public as of May 15, 2026 ET. The resolution source for this market will be information from the 13F for a specified company.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).