The market moved
+2.5ppin 24h · now 53¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Other · resolves Aug 30 · vol $880.29
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 53¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on government.is — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: government.is — https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.