Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
Probability
48¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$43.48
Liquidity
$3.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 48¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 44.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: government.is
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 30, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1836.0h
- 15:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at Jun 13, 07:00 UTC (to 46¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 17:00 · -3.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 15:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 14:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 12:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 11:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 09:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 47¢
- Jun 13, 07:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 46¢
- Jun 13, 05:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:56:08 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 30, 2026 (2026-08-30T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$43.48 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $54.66. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 44.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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