The market moved

+2.5ppin 24h · now 16¢

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Politics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $518.23

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 16¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.