Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$2.9K
Liquidity
$25.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.0h
- 17:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 14:00 (to 15¢).
Show all 3 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +4.0pp → 14¢
- 15:00 · +4.5pp → 15¢
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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