The market moved

+2.5ppin 24h · now 39¢

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Weather · resolves Dec 31 · vol $123.70

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 39¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nhc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: nhc.noaa.gov — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
+2.5pp · Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Orrery