Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$35.72
Liquidity
$960.10
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $960 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: nhc.noaa.gov
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4796.1h
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at Jun 12, 00:00 UTC (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- Jun 12, 17:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 13:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 11:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 10:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 09:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 07:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 35¢
- Jun 12, 01:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 37¢
- Jun 12, 00:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 38¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
hurricaneReason
Question text contains "hurricane" — matched the Weather keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 03:54:38 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$35.72 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $332.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $960.10. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.