The market moved
+4.3ppin 24h · now 13¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $73.91
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 13¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.3pp shift. Resolution depends on iranian government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Iranian government.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.