Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$243.40
Liquidity
$33.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.5h
- 08:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:32PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $10.8M
- 9¢+3.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $3.6M
- 64¢+39.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
- 35¢+6.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $878.6K
- 4¢-0.7pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $819.0K
- 33¢+28.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $804.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).