Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 48¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.2pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.