Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 77¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1636h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $13.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.