The market moved
+1.0ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Politics · resolves May 16 · vol $5.56
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 10¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.